Release of Pessimistic Sentiment Drives Expanded Gains in Iron Ore Futures [SMM Brief Commentary]

Today, iron ore futures held up well, with the most-traded contract I2601 closing at 788.5 yuan, up 1.81% from the previous trading day, and the increase expanded. Traders showed good willingness to sell; steel mills purchased as needed, with some mills having stronger restocking intentions due to better steel sales, and the overall market transaction atmosphere was moderate. In Shandong, the transaction price for PB fines was 785-795 yuan, up 10-15 yuan/mt from last Friday; in Hebei, the mainstream transaction price for PB fines was 795-805 yuan/mt, up 10-15 yuan/mt from last Friday.
Last week, SMM global iron ore shipments totaled 33.3 million mt, down 190,000 mt WoW, a decrease of about 0.5%. SMM China's iron ore arrivals totaled 28.52 million mt, down 1.84 million mt WoW, a decrease of about 6%. Both shipments and arrivals declined simultaneously, slightly easing short-term iron ore supply pressure. In addition, recent pessimistic sentiment was released, and market sentiment improved, driving a rebound in futures. However, the future pattern of strong supply and weak demand for iron ore is difficult to change, and iron ore prices remain under pressure.